MoreGage Market Pulse

Six gauges that turn official New Zealand housing and money figures into a quick read. General information only, not financial advice.

Every dial reads the same way: 10 is easier for households, and green is on the right. Housing market is grey because a busier market is not good or bad for everyone.

Based on official figuresNews mood

Example household

How to read the needle and the marker

The dark needle is based on official figures, which often cover earlier months. MoreGage combines those figures into a score; the score itself is not published by the Reserve Bank or Stats NZ. The orange marker shows the mood of recent reviewed news compared with that picture. The dollar amount in the middle is an example worked out from the official figures, not a dollar version of either score. The news mood is not a survey of public opinion or a forecast.

Household budget

Are mortgage payments and everyday bills getting easier or harder to cover?

Some relief for household budgets

Official figuresNews mood· both agree

Based on official figures: 5.6/10
Bills: $11more a week
News mood: 5.5/10

Everyday bills for this example household: about $11 a week more than a year earlier, using the official inflation rate. How we worked this out

What this means: Living costs are up 3.7% on a year earlier, unemployment is 5.6% and new one-year fixed loans average 4.7%. Overall the figures lean slightly towards more breathing room for household budgets.

Recent news broadly agrees with the figures.

Figures cover: Jun 2026 to Sep 2026Source: Reserve Bank (RBNZ), Stats NZGauge last checked 26 Oct 2026

Details and sources

News mood is 0.1 points below the data reading. The news points to more pressure on household budgets.

Bills / week · Year to Sep 2026.

For this example's $300 weekly spending, that's about $577 more over a year if sustained. This scenario applies the overall price change, not a measured bill. Bills can rise while the combined rates-and-jobs gauge improves.

In the coverage: Fuel and energy bills dominate a mixed price update; Fuel bills leave households less to spend elsewhere.

6 topic reports from 6 sources · Latest 2026-10-16.

Are mortgage payments and everyday bills getting easier or harder to cover? For borrowers: more room means less strain from rates, living costs and job uncertainty.

Source figures and methodology

News mood is 0.1 points below the data reading. The news points to more pressure on household budgets. This compares recent commentary with published figures, which arrive with a delay; it is not a prediction that the data will move next.

Reviewed 2026-10-26.

Fictional spending: $300 per week. Apply the overall annual price change to that unchanged basket. Not grocery-specific inflation or the average household. Income is held constant only for the example.

The rate measure averages banks' loan-value-weighted rates; it is not an advertised offer or every borrower's rate.

Household costs and jobs alongside mortgage rates.

Simple average across banks' loan-value-weighted one-year new mortgage rates: 4.7%, 2026-08.

B30 one-year rate annual change: -13 bps, 2026-08.

CPI all groups annual percentage change: 3.7%, 2026-Q3.

HLFS unemployment rate, total: 5.6%, 2026-Q2.

News is a separate, bounded reading of reviewed coverage. It is not a survey or a forecast.

Weekly Economic Commentary 12 Oct 2026 · Westpac New Zealand Economics, 2026-10-12.

Confidence up, but challenges remain · ASB Economics, 2026-10-12.

Fuel and energy bills dominate a mixed price update · www.interest.co.nz, 2026-10-16.

Fuel bills leave households less to spend elsewhere · www.rnz.co.nz, 2026-10-16.

Rent-rise plans face a tenant shortage · NZ Adviser, 2026-09-28.

Rental affordability improves, with regional differences · Property Brokers / The Property Knowledge, 2026-09-14.

Mortgage rates

Are borrowing costs heading higher or lower?

More signs of higher mortgage rates

Official figuresNews mood· both agree

Based on official figures: 4.2/10
$500k loan example: $15more a month
News mood: 4.2/10

Repayments on a $500,000 example loan: about $15 a month more at Aug 2026 rates than at Jul 2026 rates. How we worked this out

What this means: New one-year fixed home loans averaged 4.7% in Aug 2026 and the Reserve Bank's cash rate is 2.75%, up 0.5 points in six months. Taken together, the figures show upward pressure on borrowing costs. This is not a rate forecast. A fixed-rate payment does not change until the fixed term ends.

Recent news broadly agrees with the figures.

Figures cover: Jun 2026 to Sep 2026Source: Reserve Bank (RBNZ), Stats NZGauge last checked 26 Oct 2026

Details and sources

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Mortgage / month · Aug 2026 vs Jul 2026.

+$15 a month on a $500,000 example loan over 30 years. This compares published rates for the two months, using the same loan balance and term. Your existing fixed payment stays unchanged until refixing.

In the coverage: Weekly Economic Commentary 12 Oct 2026.

1 topic reports from 1 sources · Latest 2026-10-12.

Are borrowing costs heading higher or lower? For borrowers, higher costs mean more strain. Savers may benefit from higher interest rates. This is not a rate forecast.

Source figures and methodology

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Reviewed 2026-10-28.

$500,000 example loan, 30 years, principal and interest. At the published one-year new-loan rate measure: $2,578 to $2,593 per month (4.65% to 4.7%). Same balance and term for both calculations; no fees or amortisation between dates. Not the average mortgage payment, a bank offer or a forecast. A fixed payment does not change before refixing. This dollar comparison uses the rate data only, not either composite score.

The cash rate and mortgage rates can move differently. A half-percentage-point cash-rate change does not automatically change your mortgage rate by the same amount.

Observed rate movement, inflation and labour signals. Not a forecast.

B30 one-year rate annual change: -13 bps, 2026-08.

OCR six-month change: 50 bps, 2026-10-28.

CPI all groups annual percentage change: 3.7%, 2026-Q3.

HLFS unemployment rate, total: 5.6%, 2026-Q2.

B30 one-year rate monthly comparison: 5 bps, 2026-08. Reviewed official B30 summary table on 18 October. Optional dollar-example context only; not a scoring input or forecast.

News is a separate, bounded reading of reviewed coverage. It is not a survey or a forecast.

Weekly Economic Commentary 12 Oct 2026 · Westpac New Zealand Economics, 2026-10-12.

Housing market

Is the housing market slowing or picking up?

A fairly quiet housing market

Official figuresNews mood· both agree

Based on official figures: 5.3/10
$700k home example: $8,000less
News mood: 5.3/10

The value of a $700,000 example home: about $8,000 less than a quarter earlier. How we worked this out

What this means: House prices fell 1.1% in the June quarter 2026 and total home lending is growing 5.5% a year. The market is neither clearly speeding up nor slowing down.

Recent news broadly agrees with the figures.

Figures cover: Jun 2026 to Aug 2026Source: Reserve Bank (RBNZ)Gauge last checked 26 Oct 2026

Update due: a scheduled official release (30 Oct 2026) has not been reviewed yet, so these figures may be out of date.

Details and sources

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Home value / quarter · Quarter to Jun 2026.

About $8,000 less on a $700,000 home. If an example home's value followed the national price index, compared with the previous quarter. Not a valuation, sale price or promised saving.

In the coverage: Agency earnings point to a quieter housing market; September property report: slower national sales activity.

4 topic reports from 3 sources · Latest 2026-10-16.

Is the housing market slowing or picking up? Busier is not good or bad for everyone: sellers may find more demand, while buyers may face more competition.

Source figures and methodology

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Reviewed 2026-10-16.

This gauge uses prices and lending, not a count of homes sold. More lending does not necessarily mean more sales.

Quarterly M10 house-price movement and break-adjusted C5 lending stock growth. Not live sales volume.

M10 house-price index annual change: -0.3%, 2026-Q2. Derived from M10's published rounded index levels; not the separate key-statistics HPI series.

M10 house-price index quarterly change: -1.1%, 2026-Q2.

C5 housing lending stock annual growth: 5.5%, 2026-08. Published break-adjusted annual housing stock growth; not new mortgage commitments or a ratio of unadjusted stocks.

News is a separate, bounded reading of reviewed coverage. It is not a survey or a forecast.

Housing activity remains subdued · interest.co.nz, 2026-10-01.

September property report: slower national sales activity · REINZ, 2026-10-14.

August building consents: factual context for supply · Stats NZ, 2026-10-01.

Agency earnings point to a quieter housing market · www.interest.co.nz, 2026-10-16.

Buying a home

Are prices, mortgage costs and building plans helping home buyers?

Some helpful signs for buyers

Official figuresNews mood· both agree

Based on official figures: 6.2/10
$700k home example: $2,100less
News mood: 6.2/10

The value of a $700,000 example home: about $2,100 less than a year earlier. How we worked this out

What this means: House prices are down 0.3% on a year earlier, new one-year fixed loans average 4.7% and new-home building plans are up 21%. Overall the figures lean slightly towards conditions that help buyers.

Recent news broadly agrees with the figures.

Figures cover: Jun 2026 to Sep 2026Source: Reserve Bank (RBNZ), Stats NZGauge last checked 26 Oct 2026

Details and sources

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Home value / year · Year to Jun 2026.

About $2,100 less on a $700,000 home. If an example home's value followed the national price index, compared with a year earlier. Not a valuation, sale price or promised saving.

In the coverage: Weekly Economic Commentary 12 Oct 2026; Confidence up, but challenges remain.

3 topic reports from 3 sources · Latest 2026-10-12.

Are prices, mortgage costs and building plans helping home buyers? From a buyer's perspective. More choice or softer prices can help buyers, but may be less welcome for sellers.

Source figures and methodology

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Reviewed 2026-10-26.

Prices, mortgage costs and building plans describe the market, not what you can afford. The old affordability estimate was removed on 18 October; the score change is a model correction, not new market news.

House prices, mortgage costs and building plans. Not a measure of what you can afford. Before 18 October, readings include the old affordability proxy.

Simple average across banks' loan-value-weighted one-year new mortgage rates: 4.7%, 2026-08.

B30 one-year rate annual change: -13 bps, 2026-08.

CPI all groups annual percentage change: 3.7%, 2026-Q3.

HLFS unemployment rate, total: 5.6%, 2026-Q2.

M10 house-price index annual change: -0.3%, 2026-Q2. Derived from M10's published rounded index levels; not the separate key-statistics HPI series.

New dwellings consented, rolling annual count change: 21%, 2026-08.

News is a separate, bounded reading of reviewed coverage. It is not a survey or a forecast.

Weekly Economic Commentary 12 Oct 2026 · Westpac New Zealand Economics, 2026-10-12.

Confidence up, but challenges remain · ASB Economics, 2026-10-12.

August building consents: factual context for supply · Stats NZ, 2026-10-01.

Rent

What do rent changes and housing costs mean for renters?

Less pressure on renters in the figures

Official figuresNews mood· both agree

Based on official figures: 7.3/10
Rent: $4more a week
News mood: 7.3/10

A $500-a-week rent, moving with the national median: about $4 a week more than a year earlier (rents up 0.8%). How we worked this out

What this means: The national median rent for new tenancies was $595 a week in Aug 2026, $5 more than a year earlier. Combined with income trends and new-home building, the figures point to lower pressure on renters.

Recent news broadly agrees with the figures.

Figures cover: Jun 2026 to Aug 2026Source: MBIE Tenancy Services, HUD, Stats NZGauge last checked 26 Oct 2026

Update due: a scheduled official release (1 Nov 2026) has not been reviewed yet, so these figures may be out of date.

Details and sources

New-tenancy rents are higher than a year ago. Overall, the figures show less pressure on renters once income trends and new-home plans are included. The reviewed news hasn't pulled the mood away from that wider picture.

Rent / week · Year to Aug 2026.

About $220 more over a year if sustained. This example applies the reported national median change to $500 weekly rent.

In the coverage: Rental affordability improves, with regional differences; Rent-rise plans face a tenant shortage.

2 topic reports from 2 sources · Latest 2026-09-28.

What do rent changes and housing costs mean for renters? A combined picture of rent changes, income trends and new-home plans. The rent amount uses the rent figures alone.

Source figures and methodology

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Reviewed 2026-10-21. Includes proxy or older inputs.

Published national medians for newly lodged private rental bonds. The mix of homes can change between periods. Income trends and new-home plans also contribute to the wider gauge reading.

This calculation includes retained lagged or proxy inputs. A new review date does not make those observations current.

Rent changes, lagged affordability direction and population versus consent growth. Not a household rent-burden measure.

MBIE published national median rent, annual change: 0.8%, 2026-08. Authorised API capture and review 21 October. Exact ALL-area, ALL-dwelling, ALL-bedroom aggregate medians with include-aggregates=true: $595 versus $590 per week for bonds lodged in August. This is a published national median, NOT a constant-mix rent index or a change to every existing tenancy. Composition and late lodgements can affect the comparison. Capture date is availability to this model, not an asserted source release date. Supersedes the returned-cell proxy only from this review date.

Rental-affordability direction proxy: 3.3 score, 2026-Q2. HUD June 2026 v2 national rent-affordability index: annual change 0.034979 (3.4979%). Existing mapping: 10 minus a linear -10% to +10% direction score, rounded to one decimal = 3.3. Measures change for median-income entrants, not absolute rent burden. Modelled income is revisable. Availability date is our workbook capture, not an asserted publication date.

Estimated resident population, annual percentage change: 0.7%, 2026-Q2.

New dwellings consented, rolling annual count change: 21%, 2026-08.

News is a separate, bounded reading of reviewed coverage. It is not a survey or a forecast.

Rent-rise plans face a tenant shortage · NZ Adviser, 2026-09-28.

Rental affordability improves, with regional differences · Property Brokers / The Property Knowledge, 2026-09-14.

New homes

How many new homes are being planned?

Stronger new-home building plans

Official figuresNews mood· both agree

Based on official figures: 8.5/10
New-home plans: 41,268
News mood: 8.5/10

New homes approved to build in the year to Aug 2026: 41,268. How we worked this out

What this means: 41,268 new homes were consented in the year to Aug 2026, up 21% on the year before and the population grew 0.7%. That is a stronger building-pipeline signal. Consents are plans, not finished homes, and do not show whether there is enough housing in your area.

Recent news broadly agrees with the figures.

Figures cover: Jun 2026 to Aug 2026Source: Stats NZGauge last checked 26 Oct 2026

Details and sources

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Homes consented / year · Year to Aug 2026.

Permission to build in the year to 2026-08. These are building plans, not completed homes.

In the coverage: August building consents: factual context for supply.

1 topic reports from 1 sources · Latest 2026-10-01.

How many new homes are being planned? Building plans compared with population growth. Plans are not completed homes or proof of enough housing in your area.

Source figures and methodology

The reviewed reports do not create a clear gap from the published data. That can reflect mixed views or reports that add context rather than direction.

Reviewed 2026-10-16.

Consented means permission to build, not completed homes. People and homes are different units: these figures are not a housing-shortage count.

Consent intentions and population growth using the existing experimental mapping. Consents are not completed homes.

New dwellings consented, rolling annual count change: 21%, 2026-08.

Estimated resident population, annual percentage change: 0.7%, 2026-Q2.

News is a separate, bounded reading of reviewed coverage. It is not a survey or a forecast.

August building consents: factual context for supply · Stats NZ, 2026-10-01.

Common questions, in plain English

My fixed mortgage ends soon. Will my payment change now?

A change in market rates does not itself change your existing fixed payment before its term ends. Compare the replacement rate, balance and remaining loan term when checking a refix example. Our household examples explain the maths, not which lender or fixed term to choose. Understanding refixing and refinancing.

Does a higher rent reading mean my rent will rise?

No. It describes reviewed market evidence, not a notice for your tenancy. The rental example is an illustration from a limited data proxy, not a prediction of your own rent. Buying versus renting.

Can the news change my household budget or the official data?

News changes only our separate news-mood needle. Household examples use the reviewed observations and stated assumptions, not mood scores. No news article can change your bill through this tool. Sources, calculations and limitations.

Our reading

Interest.co.nz estimates that agency commission revenue was weaker over the September quarter. We treat this as a modest indirect sign of quieter housing business, not evidence that every home sells for less or that sellers pay a lower commission rate.

Experimental indices · general information. Latest input review 2026-10-28; coverage 2026-11-02. Methodology and limitations · Terms · Corrections

About this household example

One income · renting. Fictional budget, not a national average.

Take-home / week: $1,200
Rent / week: $500
Other spending / week: $300
Left over / week: $400

Everyday-cost example: $11 more a week leaves about $389, instead of $400. About $577 extra over a year if sustained.

Budget assumptions and limits

Income is after tax. Other spending is one invented basket excluding the separate housing payment. The overall price index is applied as a what-if, not measured spending for this household. Rent and mortgage examples are separate scenarios, not added to that bill change. No income growth, benefit changes, fees or tax effects are modelled. Annual equivalents assume the same change for a full year; weekly mortgage costs are monthly repayments multiplied by 12 and divided by 52. Rounded display amounts may not add exactly.

Budget mortgage payments use the stated assumed rate for that household. The gauge dollar comparison separately uses dated published rates; neither predicts your next refix. These fictional budgets are not national averages.

Reviewed snapshots, not a live feed. Last input review 2026-10-28. Some inputs need a new review. Fresh reports require review before publication.

Explore the news mood

Compare the news reports

Preview only. Your choices do not update the published readings.

Reviewed coverageDays without new reporting 0

Reviewed coverage as at 2026-11-02. 10 active reports; 0 expired.