Publication record

A dated read with its working limits visible.

Dated provenance: this edition was generated from the reviewed public snapshot captured on 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z. Each item in the feed below keeps its source, period, and link where one is available.

Published snapshot
2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z
Reviewed commentary items
1
History status
partial-observed-join

Ongoing calibration: this is a public explanatory read, not a calibrated composite or forecast.

For homeowners, buyers and renters

MoreGage Market Score.

Six quick answers to the questions people usually ask before they buy, refinance, or renew a tenancy.

Mortgage rates now

4.6% benchmark
3.2/10

Below recent average

What does this mean?

This compares the current benchmark with the recent market average. It does not mean a personal bank offer.

Mortgage rates next

OCR and mortgage-rate direction
5.2/10

Likely to stay fairly steady

What does this mean?

This combines recent mortgage-rate movement with OCR direction. It is an outlook signal, not a promise or forecast.

House prices

-0.4% annually
4.6/10

Falling slightly

What does this mean?

This shows the latest annual direction in average house values. It is about the market overall, not a valuation of one property.

Affordability pressure

5.9× household income
5.8/10

Easier, but still stretched

What does this mean?

The average house is about 5.9 times average household income. Higher means the income hurdle is harder; it does not mean every household faces the same hurdle.

Rental pressure

-0.7% annually
4.3/10

Falling slightly

What does this mean?

This is the direction of average residential rents. It helps renters and investors understand pressure, but does not describe every local rental market.

Market sentiment

Reviewed market inputs
5.3/10

Broadly steady

What does this mean?

This blends the latest economic and housing signals with reviewed bank, broker, and media commentary. One article should not move the whole reading by itself.

The short version

What this means in practice

Mortgage rates are lower than the recent average and the outlook is likely to stay fairly steady. House prices are falling slightly, while affordability is easier, but still stretched at 5.9 times household income, so buying is still hard for many households.

  • Falling slightly rents take some pressure off renters, but that does not remove the wider cost of housing.
  • The market mood is broadly steady: the housing data is mixed, with some activity and supply improvement but continued caution around jobs, spending, and borrowing costs.

These are national market signals, not a personal mortgage recommendation or property valuation.

MoreGage Market Pulse.

The six things to know

The overall read is broadly unchanged. Each gauge turns a group of housing, lending, rates, rental, and supply signals into one plain-English direction.

Higher is betterExcept where the label says pressure.

Market activity

5.8/10
SlowingPicking up

Softening

What does this mean?

This is a simple read on whether the property market is moving forward or slipping back. A score above 5 means the market has positive momentum. Around 5 means flat. Below 5 means the market is weakening.

Buyer conditions

5.6/10
More pressureMore room

Tightening

What does this mean?

This asks whether buyers have breathing room. A higher score means buyers are getting more help from softer prices, easier rates, better supply, or improved affordability.

Repayment breathing room

5.5/10
More pressureMore room

Tight

What does this mean?

This flips mortgage pressure into a comfort score. Higher is better. A low score means borrowers are likely feeling squeezed by rates, inflation, or job-market risk.

Rate pressure

5.9/10
Less pressureMore pressure

Rising-risk bias

What does this mean?

Higher means the signals point to rates staying high or rising. Lower means the rate pressure is easing.

Rental pressure

2.3/10
Less pressureMore pressure

Balanced

What does this mean?

Higher means renters are under more pressure from rising rents, income strain, or demand running ahead of supply. Lower means rental pressure is easing.

New-home supply signal

8.4/10
Falling behindCatching up

Improving

What does this mean?

Higher means supply looks healthier. Lower means new housing may not be keeping up with population and demand pressure.

Add a source to the pulsePaste a news, RBNZ, bank, or broker link. It will appear in the evidence queue below.
The evidence behind the reading

What has fed into the gauges?

New inputs appear here after they are reviewed. The movement shown is the estimated change from that item alone, rounded to one decimal place.

2026-Q2CPI annual inflationStats NZ · Official data0.0gauge move

This observation is included in the underlying gauge calculation. A separate movement is not shown because the current public model does not attribute one official observation to a single gauge.

View source ↗
2026-Q1Seasonally adjusted unemployment rateStats NZ · Official data0.0gauge move

This observation is included in the underlying gauge calculation. A separate movement is not shown because the current public model does not attribute one official observation to a single gauge.

View source ↗
2026-Q1Resident population annual growthStats NZ · Official data0.0gauge move

This observation is included in the underlying gauge calculation. A separate movement is not shown because the current public model does not attribute one official observation to a single gauge.

View source ↗
1 Jun 2026MBIE Market Rent annual growthMBIE · Official data0.0gauge move

This observation is included in the underlying gauge calculation. A separate movement is not shown because the current public model does not attribute one official observation to a single gauge.

View source ↗
1 May 2026RBNZ weighted average 2-year new mortgage rateRBNZ · Official data0.0gauge move

This observation is included in the underlying gauge calculation. A separate movement is not shown because the current public model does not attribute one official observation to a single gauge.

View source ↗
1 May 2026New homes consented annual growthStats NZ · Official data0.0gauge move

This observation is included in the underlying gauge calculation. A separate movement is not shown because the current public model does not attribute one official observation to a single gauge.

View source ↗
1 Apr 2026Annual net migrationStats NZ · Official data0.0gauge move

This observation is included in the underlying gauge calculation. A separate movement is not shown because the current public model does not attribute one official observation to a single gauge.

View source ↗
31 Mar 2026Quarterly Economic Monitor: New Zealand, March 2026Infometrics · Market commentary0.0gauge move

This was read as mixed. It was applied to Market activity, Buyer conditions.

View source ↗

A source can move more than one gauge. Official data is part of the current reading; commentary is a smaller, reviewed sentiment overlay.

Context before confidence

Historical context is uneven by gauge.

The underlying history is retained where it exists, but the public read does not pretend that every gauge has a complete observed replay. These coverage notes are part of the interpretation.

Market activity

Illustrative replay only

Verified house-price and lending history is not wired into the replay yet.

Buyer conditions

Illustrative replay only

The combined affordability and supply history is not yet sourced month by month.

Repayment breathing room

Partial official coverage

RBNZ rate observations are available, but the full historical pressure set is incomplete.

Rate pressure

Partial official coverage

RBNZ mortgage-rate history is available; OCR, inflation, and labour history still need joining.

Rental pressure

Official current observation

MBIE Market Rent now has five reviewed June observations from 2022 to 2026; direct household burden inputs remain separate.

New-home supply signal

Partial official coverage

Current consent and population snapshots exist; a joined historical series is still needed.

Method and Limitations

Use the signal to ask better questions.

The existing scoring framework combines the dated indicators and reviewed commentary already documented in the model. It is intentionally simplified: it cannot tell you whether a lender will approve you, predict rates or prices, or replace a budget, lender criteria, or regulated advice.

Weights, thresholds, missing regional inputs, and observed back-testing remain under review. The score and wording will be recalibrated as more verified history is joined; changes should be read alongside the methodology and source notes ↗.

How to read this page

Higher scores generally mean more room or healthier conditions. The gauges combine official public data with a small, reviewed commentary overlay. They simplify the market; they do not replace the underlying sources.

See the full methodology and sources ↗